My Facebook feed has lately been filled with postings about the dangers of socialism, particularly from acquaintances based in Texas. With the House of Representatives flipping to a Democratic majority and some of the more liberal and progressive members of the House promoting socially progressive programs, it is clear that much of the rhetoric surrounding the 2020 elections will center on spreading disinformation designed to create fear-mongering about threats posed by socialism.
True socialism is bad, in the sense that we know with certainty that it disincentivizes the kind of innovation, economic growth and prosperity achieved in capitalistic economies. The question is… is socialism currently a real threat to our way of life in America? Or is the fear of socialism a canard that is being used as a way of diverting attention from a fascist and nationalistic agenda intended to destroy essential elements of our democracy?Continue Reading >>
Marchers in London protesting the visit of Donald Trump, July 2018, via “The Other 98%” on Facebook.
I don’t want to keep beating the children, but you are making me do it. I don’t want to refuse to give you the money you need to buy groceries and pay the rent. It’s a humanitarian crises, all because you won’t do what I tell you to do.
I know we once took an oath that all our decisions would require mutual agreement. I intend to live by that oath. That’s why I’ll keep beating the children until we both agree that you will do exactly what I tell you to do.Continue Reading >>
How much damage Trump will do to America, and to the world at large, as his presidency goes up in flames is an open issue, but as I’ve written in the past (See: Really Bad Things Are Going To Happen Now), this is going to be very, very bad, and quite possibly a very lengthy process as well.
Many disasters have impacted Trump and America this week. The utter fraud that was the Trump Foundation is being shut down. Trump is being investigated for the serious financial improprieties of the Trump inauguration committee. A Federal judge took former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn sternly to task for his betrayal of America. Trump attorney Michael Cohen has implicated Trump in multiple felonies designed to defraud America. Russian spy Maria Butina entered into a cooperation agreement with the US government. Paul Ryan spent the week living in an alternative reality while patting himself on the back for what a tremendous job he’d done the past two years helping Trump destroy America (See: The Self-Delusion of Paul Ryan). The stock market is in a free fall, with the NASDAQ today closing in its first bear market since the Great Recession, a drop of 21.9% from its peak on August 29, 2018. The Executive Branch is drowning in staff vacancies at the highest levels. But let’s just focus on some of what has happened over just the past couple of days:Continue Reading >>
The Domino Principle’s forecast for the next two years in American politics.
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If you think the past two years have been a nightmare, then you’d best buckle up tight, because we ain’t seen nothing yet compared to what is coming during the next two years. While there will surely be many unanticipated and horrifically shocking surprises, based on what we already know we can project with a fair degree of certainty how many aspects of political life in America will play out as the dominoes fall. And it isn’t even remotely pretty.
We stand by the graphic we published prior to the election last week… and the verdict is now in. We WILL get the government that WE deserve. At least for the next two years, America will have a government that will continue to march strongly down the path to demagogic authoritarianism (see CNN: Midterm fury fuels Trump’s assault on constitutional norms). And that trek is backed by nearly half of the American public voting to embrace a degree of dishonesty, moral deplorableness and self-destructiveness never before seen at such scale in our lifetimes.
Even in a state like California, often seen as the heart of American liberalism, Republican Congressman Duncan Hunter, who is currently facing 60 federal charges, ran a massively racist campaign that tried to label his opponent as a terrorist. He got re-elected to the House by a nearly 10-point margin. Californian Devin Nunes, who has spent the past two years doing everything possible to use his position in Congress to obstruct investigation into Russia’s attempts to interfere with our elections (and with the Trump campaign’s related collusion with Russia), was easily re-elected. It was a real bright spot see Dana Rohrabacher, a Republican member of the House who has consistently shown more loyalty to Russia than to America, narrowly lose his re-election bid, but that was the exception rather than the rule (see The Atlantic: Putin’s Favorite Congressman Has Lost His Reelection).
“the fact of the matter is that in three short years the face of America has profoundly changed. A significant fraction of the society has been lured into moral degradation by the siren song of a demagogue.”
“We learned that the American public as a whole has reacted to the first two years of an unfit, delusional, mendacious, malevolent, incompetent authoritarian as president … with relative equanimity.”
“So where does this point us? To nowhere good, I’m afraid. The trouble with a normal election cycle in 2018 is that we do not have a normal president in 2018. We have a deranged, fabulist bully. For a presidency like Trump’s to generate less opposition after two years than Clinton’s or Obama’s is a rather chilling sign of how far down the rabbit hole we have already gone. To greet what is an emergency for liberal democracy as a business-as-usual political cycle, is de facto a big win for the whole idea of strongman rule. And on the key issues of a free press and the rule of law, the strongman is winning.”Continue Reading >>
Donald Trump and Vladamir Putin in Helsinki, July 16, 2018. Via www.kremlin.ru and used under license.
In a disaster entirely of his own making, the President of the United States stood alongside Vladamir Putin at a press conference in Helsinki, Finland on July 16, 2018 and confirmed to the entire world what so many of us already knew: Donald John Trump has betrayed his duty to America, and acts as though he is beholden to and under undue influence of Putin in ways that constitute an extraordinary betrayal of his oath of office.
And that’s just what we know from Trump’s public statement with Putin. Because Trump has been silent on the matter, we still have virtually no specifics about what Trump discussed and promised to Putin in their private meeting. There are reports coming out of Russia that agreements were in fact reached, and given that Trump won’t say anything about them, it seems likely that they could very well constitute an even vastly greater betrayal of American interests. See: US offers no details as Russia claims Trump and Putin reached military agreements.
In addition to Trump’s apparent universal adulation of murderous dictators in general, Putin’s specific leverage and influence over Trump seems to also stem from a variety of financial, sexual, and criminal factors. My previous column: The Man in the High Castle: Trump has committed high treason provides elaboration on each of these issues. A new column in The New Yorker this week, A Theory of Trump Kompromat also provides further insight.
I’ve received considerable correspondence since Trump’s spectacle in Helsinki, all centered on three key questions:
How can anyone still support him?;
Given how apparent it is that Trump’s loyalties are to Russia, why won’t Congress do anything about it… RIGHT NOW?; and
What can each of us do about it… RIGHT NOW?
Why People Still Support Him
The entire spectacle of Trump’s capitulation to Putin in Helsinki made it essentially impossible for anyone to claim to be pro-Trump and to love America and the values for which it has historically stood, and not seem, in the very best possible light, a complete and utter fool, and in the very worst possible light, a traitor to America as well. As John Pavlovitz’s noted in Don’t Say You Love This President and America. One of Those Things Isn’t True:
“when you refuse to name it all as treasonous, when you choose to remain silent, when you pretend you don’t see it—you declare who you are. We see it. The world sees it.””
So one must face some grim realities to explain Trump’s continued support:
There really are Americans who truly want America to move away from democracy towards authoritarianism, particularly if an authoritarian leader pretends to support their political and social agenda and remove it from possible change via democratic processes.
There are Americans who support Trump because they profit greatly from his policies and agenda, and some of them are extremely wealthy… and their wealth can and does buy political influence.
There are Americans who truly want to see the subjugation of America to Russia.
There are Americans who simply don’t have the intelligence to understand the issues involved (remember, half the population has an IQ of under 100) — they are easily persuaded by the gaslighting distortions and distractions of Trump and his enablers, and/or they blindly support anyone who identifies as Republican because it is their cultural heritage to do so. The Dunning–Kruger effect is real.
There is also a considerable segment of Americans who are attached to Trump in such a cultish fashion that they essentially see him as being anointed by a higher power to lead us… these people don’t care if he is a traitor… they will follow him anywhere.
And there is a segment of Americans who will refuse to back away from Trump because it would mean admitting that they were wrong about something that they were once passionate about, so they will just keep digging in no matter what he does.
So in total, the evidence is that these factors combined explain the behavior of about 30% of the American electorate. We are forced to conclude that even if Trump should publicly come out and claim that he wants to make the United States a republic in the Russian Federation, a sizable portion of his supporters would applaud him for having another brilliant idea, while repeating the gaslighting distortions he manufactures to justify it. That’s the America we live in, and only by recognizing this scary reality can we find a constructive path to move forward.
Why Congress Won’t Do Anything RIGHT NOW
After the Helsinki summit, Former CIA Director John O. Brennan noted:
Donald Trump’s press conference performance in Helsinki rises to & exceeds the threshold of “high crimes & misdemeanors.” It was nothing short of treasonous. Not only were Trump’s comments imbecilic, he is wholly in the pocket of Putin. Republican Patriots: Where are you???
While Adam Schiff, ranking member of the House Select Intelligence Committee, stated:
After his summit with Putin, Republicans can no longer ignore the fact that, whether he is or not, Trump acts like he’s compromised.
Why else would he side with Putin, a former KGB officer, over his own intelligence agencies, bash Europe and favor the Kremlin over NATO allies? pic.twitter.com/7WTJ7e4hb6Continue Reading >>
Donald Trump learned last week of indictments being handed down by the US Department of Justice confirming what he already knew, namely that Vladimir Putin’s military launched a coordinated cyber-attack on America in 2016. Some of these attacks appear to have taken place within hours of Trump’s direct request for Russia to undertake them.
Trump then stated this past week, publicly, “Putin’s not my enemy.”
Russia, and it’s murderous dictator, Vladimir Putin, are clearly the enemies of the United States. Yet, Trump says Putin isn’t his enemy. Why?
The answer now seems clear: it is because Trump is a Russian asset and the most perfidious traitor to America to have lived within our lifetimes.
“During a phone call with Mr. Putin in March, when the president was urged by aides not to congratulate the Russian president on his electoral victory, Mr. Trump did just that. He told Mr. Putin that Russia and the United States should get along better. And he described as ‘stupid people’ the unnamed Trump administration officials whom the Russian president said had tried to prevent the call from happening, according to a person with direct knowledge of the conversation.”Continue Reading >>
“Like any number of us raised in the late 20th century, I have spent my life perplexed about exactly how Hitler could have come to power in Germany. Watching Donald Trump’s rise, I now understand.” — Harvard professor Danielle Allen
Social media provides a window into how our friends, neighbors and acquaintances view the world that wasn’t present when Hitler rose to power. One of the best, and, at the same time, most terrible things about the current political situation in America is that it provides a glimpse of our community that did not exist in times past. And while social media is often justifiably blamed for exacerbating how lies, distortions, and false narratives are shared and adopted in support of those promulgating nefarious agendas, it can also play a highly positive role in debunking falsehoods, in uniting people together in positive directions, and in understanding whom within our circle of friends and acquaintances does not support the basic democratic ideals that have traditionally united us as Americans.
As a 6th grade student nearly half a century ago, I remember learning lessons from World War II. The familiar adage that “all tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent” became expressed through the ode written by German Lutheran pastor Martin Niemöller. He described the cowardice of German intellectuals following the Nazis’ rise to power and subsequent purging of their chosen targets, group after group (See: ‘First They Came’: The Poem of the Protests):
“First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out— Because I was not a Socialist. Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out— Because I was not a Trade Unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out— Because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.”
Our lesson also taught that what had happened in Germany could happen again, and that it could even happen in America. And my classroom lesson predicted that if another authoritarian rose to seek power by moving us from democracy towards fascism, 70%+ of the populace would not speak out and object, and a non-trivial segment of the population would actually actively support him (or her).
As a 12 year old in the early 1970s, I was incredulous to believe that people would remain silent and that such a thing could ever happen again, with the world having witnessed what happened during World War II in Europe. I was full of questions: Was this prediction really true? Who were those people who would be silent or would actively subvert democracy? Were some of them my friends and neighbors? How could we tell who those people were?
Today, because of social media, I finally have answers to many of those questions.
Is Trump like Hitler? How is America’s support of Trump like Germany’s support of Hitler?
While many similarities between Trump and Hitler can be drawn, what is happening today in America isn’t genocide and the aim isn’t extermination (See: It’s Not the Holocaust). Hitler’s objective was world domination and “purification.” Hitler was a mass murderer who aspired to take over the world for the glory of the Fatherland. Unlike today’s America, which has a reasonably strong economy and low unemployment, Hitler came to power in the wake of Germany’s loss during World War I. The Treaty of Versailles leveled reparations on Germany and the ensuing depression had caused incredible hardship throughout Europe. Hitler promoted established German values of hard work, honour, and a strong military.
Many of the Germans saw Hitler as a saviour and ignored his racist views. Hitler’s racism and persecution was focused primarily on “infestation” from Jews along with Roma (Gypsies), Poles, Soviet prisoners of war, Afro-Germans, political dissidents, Jehovah’s Witnesses, people with disabilities, homosexuals, along with various other “asocials and non-conformists.” Trump’s animus seems to be primarily focused on Muslims, Mexicans and refugees who he claims are trying to “infest” America. In both cases, fear-mongering against minorities was/is used as a way to motivate followers.
“Alongside the viciousness of much of German politics in the Weimar years was an incongruous innocence: few people could imagine the worst possibilities. A civilized nation could not possibly vote for Hitler, some had thought. When he became chancellor nonetheless, millions expected his time in office to be short and ineffectual. Germany was a notoriously law-abiding as well as cultured land. How could a German government systematically brutalize its own people? German Jews were highly assimilated and patriotic. Many refused to leave their homeland, even as things got worse and worse. “I am German and am waiting for the Germans to come back; they have gone to ground somewhere,” Victor Klemberer worte in his diary – he was the son of a rabbi and a veteran of the First World War who chose to stay, and miraculously survived.Continue Reading >>
President’s Day is a good time to reflect on where your alliances lie.
Today we celebrate President’s Day, a patriotic holiday that is normally a time when we commemorate our history and our democracy, and we honor those who have served to lead it. But this year is different… it comes as an opportunity to contemplate the horrific reality that We the People have created for ourselves, and to reflect upon how we might move forward as a nation to remedy the situation.
America had been comfortable for awhile. The country went through a golden age of sorts in the late 20th century, making significant improvements in terms of the health, education, and affluence of its citizens. That age has ended and those trends have seen dramatic reverses in recent years. Life expectancy is declining in America, and the American system of healthcare available to all but the wealthiest of Americans lags that of many other parts of the developed world. Much of America wallows in deep ignorance and embraces alternative facts and shuns science. (See: Let’s Make America SMART Again.) The income divide between the have’s and the have-not’s grows on an ongoing basis. The secular values of our founding fathers are under assault.
McCarthyism of the 1950s (“Are you now, or have you ever been, a member of the communist party?”) deeply divided the nation, followed by the Civil Rights movement and the Vietnam War of the 60s and 70s. Nothing since then has quite split the nation in the way it has become divided in the first year of the Trump presidency. Once Trump won the presidency, this did not come as a surprise to anyone who was paying attention (see my article from November 2016: Amoral Imperative). And with the greatest of irony, we have come full circle from the largely imagined commie plots of the 1950s to the 2010s where the evidence is overwhelming that Russian schemes to harm our democracy are active on an ongoing basis, and large numbers of Americans, including our President, are presently aiding and abetting such schemes in both a witting and unwitting manner.
Divisions have occurred along the lines of liberal versus conservative, Democrat versus Republican, and among those who represent decency versus those who embrace values seen as deplorable by the vast majority. But as the events of the past few weeks have again brought into crystal clear focus, the divide is also, and perhaps most importantly, focused on the very essence of the differences between America and Russia, and on the very idea of whether truth, justice, and the American way will prevail in the future of our nation.
Events that transpire over the next year will set a course for determining if America returns to a path of being a country that imperfectly strives for freedom of speech, freedom of religion, fair elections, and the right of it’s citizen’s to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness… or if America will continue on the downward spiral of the past year, on a collision course to become more Russia-esque, a mafia oligarchy, one nation under Trump (in parallel with Russia’s one nation under Putin).
While only the most preliminary results of Mueller’s investigation are now public, we now have some visibility into the “tip of the iceberg” of the evidence that Mueller has amassed. Sufficient detail has emerged to have a strong sense of where all of this is going. In the near term, we can expect to see a variety of additional criminal indictments handed down related to obstruction of justice and conspiracy to defraud the United States. Mueller undoubtedly senses the importance of focusing on this aspect of the case, as it appears that criminal acts of obstruction are continuing to occur on an ongoing basis.
The two other primary areas of Mueller’s investigation may extend on for years: 1) criminal acts that may have been committed related to collusion with Russia (collusion is not, in itself, a criminal act); and 2) money laundering, other Russia-related business dealings, or other leverage Russia may have over Trump and his family leading to a situation where POTUS is clearly beholden to, and uncritical of, Putin, and where POTUS brazenly violates the very law he signed (under protest) to put sanctions on Russia for its role in election tampering. (See: Trump gives in to Putin, refuses to impose America’s sanctions on Russia.)
The fact that Congressman Devin Nunes, and other Trump surrogates, are going to such outrageous lengths to try to cast doubt on the Russia investigation is telling… it means that Trump knows he is cornered in a “deep shit” kind of way, and is acting like a wounded animal thrashing about in the midst of an inevitable death blow.
President Trump not a believer in the “never let them see you sweat” theory of crisis management
What is the basis for Russia’s leverage over Trump? That picture has become clearer and clearer over the past year. Some have speculated that they are blackmailing him over something of a sexual nature, but that seems less likely now, given what is already publicly known about him in terms of rape allegations and his affairs. Trump seems to have no sense of shame over what he has done extra-maritally, and such acts probably won’t land him in jail or affect him in a deep financial way, so it is questionable whether he can be blackmailed by them. But Russia knows the details of how Trump has possibly amassed much of his fortune through the laundering of Russian money, they know the details of how his campaign has possibly colluded with them, and they likely have insight into a variety of other crimes he and his family have committed in the course of their business transactions, including conspiracy to defraud the United States. Russian money (along with Chinese money) seems to be continuing to find its ways into Trump’s fortunes on an ongoing basis. These issues are likely the core explanation for Russia’s leverage over Trump. (See: Trump’s Russian Laundromat and Trump’s Biggest Potential Conflict Of Interest Is Hiding In Plain Sight.)
Today the Republican Party remains in power, but its prospects for the future lie in shambles:
A political party that once held itself as the champion of family values has become the defender of a man whose family values are exemplified by hush money payments to cover up his marital affairs; who is the subject of multiple, credible, rape allegations; and who, with his own statements, has boasted of his history as a sexual predator.
A political party that once held itself as the champion of fiscal conservatism is now led by man with a history of multiple bankruptcies who is focused on grossly exacerbating America’s already dire financial debt situation by vastly increasing government spending and cutting tax revenues at the same time; with a net increase to the deficit of trillions of dollars; at a time at which sound fiscal conservatism dictates exactly the opposite approach. (See: The Great American Tax Heist and With Budget Deal, the G.O.P. Tosses Out the Economics Textbooks.)
A political party that once, with considerable justification, decried the moral and ethical lapses of the Obama administration is now led by a man whose administration centers on corruption, ethics violations, and the President’s use of the Office of the President to enrich himself, his family, and his business associates in a manner that dwarfs anything America has ever seen in the past by orders of magnitude. (See: How the Swamp Drained Trump.)
Under the control and purchase of the gun lobby, the Republican Party has accepted as a matter of necessity the ongoing deaths of thousands of Americans, including American school children, as the price that they are prepared to pay for the fetishization of weapons. “The claim of this lobby’s complicity in murder is not exaggerated or hysterical but, by now, quite simple and precise: when you refuse to act to stop a social catastrophe from happening, you are responsible for the consequences of the social catastrophe.” (See: Four Truths About the Florida School Shooting.)
And perhaps the most perplexing aspect of it all is that instead of the vast majority of Republicans repudiating this conduct and calling for reform for their party to bring it back to the sound principles for which it once stood, so many instead continue to share Russian propaganda and repeat the gaslighting tactics promulgated by the President (see my earlier article: Narcissism, Codependency, Gaslighting, Reality Distortion Fields and The American Presidency) to try to defend and divert attention to what is utterly indefensible. And in the process, each and every one of them effectively becomes responsible for the sinking of their own ship. This is not only bad for the Republican Party, it is bad for America. As David Frum notes in An Exit From Trumpocracy: “The stability of American society depends on conservatives finding a way forward from the Trump dead end.”
We have to be very clear about what happened this morning: the president woke up, went on Twitter, and raved like a madman. No other description of what happened this morning will do.
While it would be easy to look at the Russian-sponsored disinformation campaigns and think it would be absurd to believe that anyone could be so naive to buy into any of it, the evidence is overwhelming that the combination of Russian disinformation coupled with Trump’s ongoing gaslighting distortion tactics (including but not limited to: diversion; whataboutism; belittling and dismissiveness; exaggeration; self-aggrandizement; self-victimization; projection; blatant lying; rewriting history and reality denial; normalization; blame reflection and deflection; deconstructive conditioning; idealization and devaluation; bullying, shaming, raging and threatening; fear mongering; isolationism; and false equivalency) have been highly effective, and are often repeated and broadly disseminated on social media by people who should know far better. (See, for example: The Russians pretended to be Texans — and the Texans believed them and A former Russian troll speaks: ‘It was like being in Orwell’s world’.)
Two Cautionary Tales
One could provide thousands of examples, but in the interest of brevity, I’ll just provide two examples that are painfully close to me, of how distortion leads good people down harmful paths.
Both the these examples come from the Facebook feeds of individuals who have been long time friends of mine… both of these individuals are well-educated, they are both very successful entrepreneurs and business owners, with employees whose lives they have enriched. They are both proud and loving parents and grandparents. One of them is a veteran of the American armed services who has served our country with distinction. I’m fairly certain that both of them fly the American flag proudly. Both of them would, and have, gone to extraordinary lengths to help a friend without hesitation, and they both have done so for me in the past. Yet both individuals use their Facebook feeds in very subtle and unsettling ways.
The first person was, like me, once a Democrat, then a Republican, and is now an Independent. He characterizes himself as a conservative who decries the divisiveness and corruption of both major political parties. He posts frequently about the importance of Americans to put America above the needs of partisan politics. We agree on all of these things.
His Facebook commentary during this year’s State of the Union speech was interesting and included: “Sad. Nancy Pelosi making an angry bitch face during the State of the Union, at least Schumer had the decency to applaud our leader.” and “Nice to see a few who put America above their Party on both sides of the aisle!” (He failed to also mention that John Boehner was noted for the grimaces he made during Obama’s 2014 and 2015 State of the Union speeches, but perhaps he was unaware.)
Yet, over a time period in which 17 people were killed in a school shooting in Parkland, Florida; in which the President has lied to the American people multiple times on a daily basis; in which the President has railed against the freedom of the press that calls him on his lies; in which the President has failed to follow the law and take action against Russian election tampering; in which Russian nationals were indicted for conspiracy against the United States; in which the President has been in the news for hush money payoffs to extramarital lovers; in which fiscal conservatism principles are being grossly ignored by the President to balloon an already grotesque and unhealthy national debt; in which the President has continued on an ongoing basis to use the Office of the Presidency to enrich himself and his family; in which the President has sought to undermine the independence of both the FBI and the Department of Justice, and to use them for his own personal purposes and to obstruct justice… my friend has failed to make a single Facebook post on any of these topics. What seems to make him most upset, at least as evidenced by his Facebook postings, is the angry bitch face Nancy Pelosi made during the State of the Union address.
Then he writes: “To all the Trump haters, I ask you; is DJT dividing our country, or is it partisan politicians? In my late 30’s I tore up my Democratic Party card. Ten years ago I tore up my Republican Party Card. They are one party who seeks to divide us. Don’t kid yourselves. Don’t put a Political party ahead of your friendships, your family, or your country.”
The answer, of course, is yes, partisan politics is dividing our country, but even more so, by orders of magnitude, so is Donald John Trump.
Having a two party system is actually inherently healthy for a democracy. It isn’t the fact that we have two parties that disagree that is the problem… it is having the two party system perverted by the ability of special interests to buy politician’s favors that is unhealthy. A two party system, when it operates as it should, provides checks and balances that encourage ethical conduct, ferret out corruption, and foster healthy debate leading to consensus that protects both majorities and minorities. As Jimmy Carter so aptly noted in 2015:
“It [unlimited money in politics] violates the essence of what made America a great country in its political system. Now it’s just an oligarchy, with unlimited political bribery being the essence of getting the nominations for president or to elect the president. And the same thing applies to governors and U.S. senators and congress members.”Continue Reading >>
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America has a pre-existing condition, and it’s name is Donald John Trump.
As this column goes to press, there are 1353 days left. Now that all the efforts to review the Trump administration’s first 100 days are behind us, today we look deeply at how we can use what we have learned over the first 108 days to make educated predictions at what lies in store for the American people over the remainder of Trump’s term.
While it is perhaps folly to try to foresee the specific actions of a particular individual, especially one whose actions often seem to emulate the utter randomness of Brownian motion, there does indeed seem to be a method to this administration that allows us to foresee the general flow of future events in a probabilistic fashion. History has also taught us that we can sometimes look at large groups of people to predict ways in which our society is likely to evolve. Social trends such as economic bubbles, mass hysteria, collective obsessional behaviors and “rational selfish behavior” can be driving societal forces whose repercussions can be recognized and anticipated. One just has to look deeply at how the dominoes have been set up and which direction they are falling.
Below The Domino Principle examines at the future of the Trump Presidency in 11 key areas:
Why things are not even worse than they already are
How Trump will use the executive branch to change America
How Trump will use the legislative branch to change America
How Trump will use the judicial branch to change America
Trump’s assault on reality, the media, and the spread of disinformation
How Trump will change the economic health of America
How Trump’s immigration policies will affect America
Trump’s ability to affect foreign policy and involve America in wars
The likelihood Trump will try to seize power through a “Reichstag fire” moment
Trump’s chances of not completing his term of office
The vital role each of us play in helping determine the outcome of this presidency
Why Things Are Not Even Worse
Let’s look at the bright side of things first… While the first 100 days in so many ways seemed an endless exercise in disturbing, embarrassing and dreadful chaos, there are three primary reasons that things today are not any worse:
1) POTUS has made it clear that he believes that our two party system is obstructionist, that the rules of Congress are archaic, and that our judicial system should not be able to restrict his authority. Yet despite attempts by POTUS and the Justice Department to bypass the checks and balances of our system of government, in many instances our constitutional protections against abuse by the executive branch have, so far, held firm. (Yet, keep in mind that it has only been 108 days, and the administration is clearly committed to continue efforts to erode such checks and balances.) The courts are still ruling unconstitutional actions as unconstitutional, Senate Republicans have spoken out strongly against Trump’s call to end the filibuster with regards to legislation, and the FBI and Congress are still investigating, albeit slowly and amidst numerous acts of diversion, Russian tampering into the Presidential election along with the possibility of treason or misprision of treason by members of the Trump administration. POTUS’s use of the White House to personally enrich himself and his family has been most disturbing however, and so far there doesn’t seem to be any checks and balances in place that are actually working to stop it.
2) POTUS has proven himself to be an incompetent manager at a scale few had imagined was possible. This has been exemplified by his lack of focus and short attention span; his failure to understand how specific actions lead to specific consequences in the real world; his bewilderment at the reality that he does not actually have dictatorial powers; his inability to grasp deal-making in a congressional political perspective; his failure to attract quality staff and his abuse of the staff he has attracted; his inability to fulfill utterly incoherent promises because they were… well, incoherent; his constant changes in position on nearly every issue; his frequent actions and tweets demonstrating that he is often completely disassociated with reality; his lack of ability to tie his actions to any type of coherent policy or doctrine that would allow his actions to make rational sense; and his seeming preoccupation with finding ways to use the office of the presidency to enrich himself and his family.
3) The American people are starting to find their voice, and they are starting to make it clear to our elected representatives that the hatred towards ethnic minorities, religions, and women that helped propel Trump into office does not represent the voices of the majority of Americans of either party. As America has come to realize that the Republic, along with being governed in a manner consistent with a fact-based worldview, truly are in jeopardy, people of both political parties are starting to wake up, they are starting to care, and they are starting to make their voices heard.
How Trump Will Use the Executive Branch to Change America
How many times have we said POTUS is winning and that he is consolidating power behind him? Here's 400 examples. The urgency is real. https://t.co/zp5PLhTrCg
— Rogue POTUS Staff (@RoguePOTUSStaff) April 3, 2017
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The President is slowly but steadily consolidating power throughout the executive branch. While many jobs remain unfilled, more than 400 positions have been filled. The list includes “obscure campaign staffers, contributors to Breitbart and others who have embraced conspiracy theories, as well as dozens of Washington insiders who could be reasonably characterized as part of the ‘swamp’ Trump pledged to drain.” Each day many of these people use their authority to erode important facets of our democracy, and it will only get worse and worse as more positions are filled and as these people gain experience in how to use their authority to further an agenda that reduces the rights of individuals while consolidating the power of the presidency.
— American Journal News (@AmerIndependent) May 5, 2017
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As POTUS is able to staff the Justice Department, there is little question that he and Sessions will try to harness it to pursue political prosecutions against enemies, place a focus on litigation that targets specific religious and ethnic groups, and otherwise trample civil rights. Disregard for the judicial process and its outcomes has been a hallmark of Trump’s career, and he has quite openly used litigation as a tool of harassment. He now has the largest prosecutorial organization in the world at his disposal, and the prospects are chilling.
In a world where we are much more likely to be killed in a pandemic than in a terrorist attack, the Administration’s desire to cut more than $6 billion from the budgets of the National Institute of Health and the Center for Disease Control would fundamentally cripple America’s ability to fight and cure disease and to stop the spread of new epidemics of infectious diseases.
The potential long term effects of changes being pursued by the Department of Education include fostering educational environments that mix religious dogma and alternative facts in the classroom, while also creating an increasingly ignorant populace by shifting resources further away from those least able to afford educational opportunities. The net result is the further decline in the American educational system and subsequent loss in economic productivity as individuals exiting that system attempt to enter the workforce.
How Trump Will Use the Legislative Branch to Change America
It’s Thursday. How many people have lost their healthcare today?
Well, Mr. President, thanks to you and the GOP Majority, the answer to the question you asked three years ago is now — 24 million. https://t.co/4kZRTe00kFContinue Reading >>
There are some things that transcend party politics.
These are perilous times, and looking past superficialities to see deep repercussions is important. The current US administration is treading into territory far removed from anything we’ve seen within our lifetimes, from either Democratic or Republican administrations. When basic liberties are threatened and the possibility of nuclear conflict edges closer on a daily basis, it is incumbent on each of us to seek truth, to look at world events with real depth, and to use our voice to say, eyes wide open and with love for America: “No, this is not okay… I will not go quietly into the night.”
I’m a long time Republican who is fiscally conservative, socially progressive, and who believes in a strong separation between church and state. I’ve historically voted for candidates in either party who I see as best suited for office and best able to further the public good. I often quote vocal conservatives like former George W. Bush speechwriter David Frum and my friend Albert Nurick. Sometimes, when I feel their arguments are logical and factual, I quote well known liberals like Robert Reich and Keith Olbermann. I make a deliberate effort to stay away from quoting or posting articles from what I see as either right-wing or left-wing extremist propaganda or conspiracy theory web sites. To try to keep bias to a minimum, far more often than not, I’ll read and post from sources within the orange box I’ve added to this graphic:
Part of what makes America great is that it gives its citizens wide latitude in terms of what they can speak and what they can believe. There are those I know who believe, for example, that they would rather America become a Christian fundamentalist theocracy or fascist state instead of continuing as a democracy that allows others who do not share their viewpoints to obtain political standing. I strongly support the right of such individuals to have and express such a viewpoint, while at the same time I strongly object to seeing their viewpoint come to fruition. Such a point-of-view transcends party politics, and advocates for changing America into something very different than what it is today or has been throughout its history.
Here are a few of the things I see happening today that transcend party politics:
When the President appoints a man (Steve Bannon) to be his White House Chief Strategist, a man who is a self-proclaimed Leninist, who advocates for global war and the deconstruction of the American political system, to replace it with a Christian fundamentalist fascist state… it transcends party politics. Even worse when the individual has a history of being an openly racist white nationalist who promotes “alternate facts” on a regular basis, and who was, until just recently, appointed by the President to be a part of the National Security Council.
When, without having even the slightest evidence to support his accusations, our president slanderously fabricates false allegations, stating as fact that a former American president committed a serious criminal felony, it transcends party politics.
When our president praises our enemies, alienates our greatest allies, and encourages the efforts of Russia, one of our greatest adversaries, to tamper with our election (on his behalf), it transcends party politics.
When our president appoints members of his administration, and sets policies, in a manner that is utterly ignorant of the realities of science, it transcends party politics.
When a man who is clearly and definitively clinically mentally unwell has access to our nuclear codes, it transcends party politics. When he acts as Commander-in-chief to direct our military and to antagonize those who wish to do us harm, it transcends party politics. As Princeton history professor Sean Wilentz has noted (See: Trump and the Pathology of Narcissism):
“We’ve had some very troubled presidents in our past, but their troubles are things like alcoholism, paranoia, you know, sort of garden-variety psychological maladies. This is different. This shows a dissociation from reality. We just haven’t seen anything like this before.”
“Mental illness does not need to be professionally diagnosed. We don’t need to be told by a doctor that the guy coughing and sneezing at the other end of the train car is probably sick… When someone is compulsively lying, continuously contradicting himself, imploring the approval of people even as he is attacking them, exalting people one day and abusing and vilifying them the next, then the question of his mental state is moot. The safe thing to do is not just to stay away from him, but to keep him away from situations where he can do harm.”
When our president spends on the order of a hundred million dollars of taxpayer money on a military attack designed to bolster presidential approval ratings, divert discussion from the Russia investigation, and to create the impression that he is not a puppet of a foreign adversary, while doing nothing to substantively improve the lives of those he claims he is trying to protect, it transcends party politics. (Ivanka reportedly told him… “We have to look like we care.”) (See: The Media Fell for Trump’s Syria Stunt).
When our president uses the Office of the Presidency to financially self-enrich himself, his family, and his friends in a manner unlike anything we have ever seen before in American politics, and he refuses to divest himself of business conflicts, or to provide transparency in disclosing his financial data in a manner similar to what has been done by past Presidents, it transcends party politics.
When we have a president who is an avowed sexual predator, who we’ve heard state in his own words that his fame and wealth entitles him to grab women by the pussy and to enter their dressing rooms while they are in a state of undress… we don’t need convictions on his rape allegations to know the kind of human being that he is. Ditto on when he just this week kicked off Sexual Assault Awareness Month by defending Bill O’Reilly’s character, on whose behalf Fox News has recently acknowledged paying out on the order of $13 million in settlements on a multitude of sexual harassment allegations (See: Donald Trump Kicks Off Sexual Assault Awareness Month By Defending Bill O’Reilly). Last November every sexual predator and psychological abuser in America learned that half the country has their back. And every survivor learned that half the country doesn’t have theirs. This transcends party politics.
When we have a White House so eager to rewrite history and create an alternate reality that it fabricates fictitious terrorist attacks in Bowling Green, Atlanta, and Sweden; and then today proclaimed that either six million jews didn’t die in gas chambers, or that Hitler’s forcing his citizens into gas chambers and killing them didn’t constitute the use of chemical weapons… this also transcends party politics.
Strategies for taking command of our lives through seeing "deep repercussions" in world events and realizing how chain reactions can produce future outcomes.
